New analysis shows destinations that assume risk will recover up to 1.5 times faster with global rehabilitation times dropping from 24 months to as little as 10
RIYADH : TOURISE, in collaboration with Oxford Economics, today released a new report, “Resilience in a World that Doesn’t Reset: Redesigning Tourism for an Era of Permanent Disruption.” The analysis of 85 major crises over two decades shows a clear pattern: in a world defined by continuous shocks, destinations that act before disruption hits recover up to 1.5 times faster than those that wait.
What the TOURISE report recommends
“In a world that does not reset between crises, disruption is a constant feature of the global tourism landscape,” said His Excellency Ahmed Al-Khateeb, Minister of Tourism of Saudi Arabia and Chairman of TOURISE. “The real test for destinations measures how they prepare for volatility, protect traveler confidence, and maintain continuity ahead of such events.”
Using the current Middle East crisis as a lens, where Gulf hubs carry roughly 14 percent of global transit traffic, the report provides investors and policymakers with practical guidance for navigating a system in which disruption is now the norm. Key findings include:
- Three scenarios, one conclusion: recovery depends on confidence, connectivity, and affordability. The report models three pathways for the current Middle East crisis. If the ceasefire holds, global travel grows about 6 percent in 2026; if hostilities resume, it falls about 1 percent; and under sustained disruption, it declines about 3 percent and remains weak into 2027. Across every scenario, the report concludes that recovery is determined less by the crisis itself than by how quickly confidence, connectivity, and affordability can be restored.
- Confidence now travels faster than people. In 2025, viral rumors of a megaquake drove booking declines of up to 50 percent from some East Asian markets despite no scientific basis, showing how misinformation can depress demand before any physical disruption.
- Tourism is recovering faster, but systemic crises are the new test. Average recovery times fell from about 24 months in the early 2000s to 10 to 12 months today. However, increasingly complex, multi-country disruptions are beginning to slow this trend.
- Preparation is becoming a competitive advantage. Saudi Arabia, which welcomed 37.2 million tourists in the first quarter of 2026, an 8 percent year-on-year increase despite regional volatility, and reached its 100 million annual-visitor target seven years early, illustrates how diversification under Saudi Vision 2030 translates into measurable resilience.
“Global tourism has proven remarkably resilient, reaching a record 1.52 billion international arrivals in 2025 despite a decade defined by natural and man-made disasters,” said Adam Sacks, President of Tourism Economics. “The lesson learned is that resilience can be built before disruption occurs, in the actions destinations take to prepare. In a world that no longer resets between crises, preparedness is becoming a core measure of competitiveness.”
Building Tourism Resilience Through Strategic Preparedness
The findings highlight the importance of moving beyond crisis response towards long-term tourism resilience. Destinations that invest in preparedness can be better positioned to manage sudden changes in travel demand, protect local businesses and maintain visitor confidence during periods of uncertainty.
One important priority is diversification. By developing different source markets, tourism products and visitor experiences, destinations can reduce their dependence on a single group of travellers or travel corridor. This approach can help limit the impact of disruptions affecting particular regions, transport routes or customer segments.
Reliable communication is equally important. Clear, timely updates from tourism authorities, airlines, hotels and travel operators can help travellers make informed decisions and reduce the influence of misinformation. Coordinated messaging can also support confidence among international visitors and industry stakeholders.
Connectivity and affordability remain essential to recovery. Flexible travel arrangements, effective transport coordination and competitive accommodation options can help destinations attract visitors as conditions improve. Collaboration between governments and private-sector organisations is also important for maintaining essential tourism services during challenging periods.
As global travel continues to face geopolitical uncertainty, economic pressures and environmental risks, resilience is becoming a central consideration for tourism investment and planning. The report reinforces the need for destinations to treat preparedness as an ongoing priority rather than a temporary response to individual crises. By strengthening coordination, diversifying tourism offerings and protecting traveller confidence, destinations can improve their ability to adapt to disruption and support more sustainable long-term growth.
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Ahmed Abdul Wasey
Managing Editor, Eat ‘N Stays
Ahmed Abdul Wasey is the Managing Editor in Eat ‘N Stays, overseeing all editorial coverage of travel, hospitality, and food across Saudi Arabia and the wider Gulf region. He sets the publication’s editorial direction and reviews coverage across hotels, restaurants, tourism, cruise, and industry news before it publishes.
Have a story tip, correction, or question about our coverage? Reach Ahmed directly at pr@eatnstays.com.
