Airbus Forecasts Demand for More Than 3,800 New Aircraft in the Middle East by 2045
DUBAI: The Middle East will require more than 3,800 new passenger aircraft over the next 20 years, according to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast (GMF), highlighting the region’s growing importance in global aviation. Rising demand for air travel, population growth, urbanisation and significant investment in airlines and airport infrastructure are expected to drive expansion through 2045.
The forecast identifies demand for approximately 2,160 single-aisle aircraft and 1,670 widebody aircraft, reflecting the region’s requirements for both short- and medium-haul connectivity and long-distance international travel.
Airbus expects passenger traffic to, from and within the Middle East to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.7% over the forecast period, more than doubling by 2045. The outlook points to continued opportunities for airlines, airports and businesses across the wider aviation ecosystem.
Airbus Forecast Highlights Middle East Aviation Growth
Despite disruption and geopolitical uncertainty affecting the aviation industry, the Middle East continues to demonstrate strong long-term demand prospects. According to Airbus, existing large single-aisle aircraft backlogs already represent 45% of the region’s total projected 20-year demand.
Gabriel Semelas, President of Airbus Africa and Middle East, said regional airlines had demonstrated operational resilience despite geopolitical volatility.
“The Middle East is one of the world’s most dynamic aviation markets,” Semelas said, highlighting demographic expansion, rising prosperity and major infrastructure investment as key drivers of future demand.
He added that airlines were expanding and modernising their fleets while supporting the transition towards more efficient and sustainable air transport.
The region’s role as an international connecting hub, alongside investments in aviation infrastructure and airline development, is expected to contribute to the forecast growth. Continued fleet expansion will also help carriers respond to changing passenger demand and strengthen connections between regional and international destinations.
Rising Incomes and Urbanisation to Drive Air Travel
Demographic and economic changes are expected to play a central role in the Middle East’s aviation outlook. Airbus identifies rising disposable incomes, increasing urbanisation and an expanding middle class as important contributors to higher travel demand.
The forecast anticipates urbanisation reaching 55% of the population and the middle class growing by an additional 240 million people to reach 620 million overall.
As more people gain access to air travel, demand is expected to increase across leisure, business and international journeys. Greater connectivity can also support tourism, trade and investment by making destinations more accessible to visitors and businesses.
Airbus’ projections indicate that trips per capita across major Middle Eastern markets will more than double by 2045.
In Saudi Arabia, the number of trips per person each year is forecast to rise from 1.6 in 2025 to 4.0 by 2045. In the United Arab Emirates, annual trips per capita are expected to increase from 3.1 to 6.5 over the same period.
These projections underline the importance of Saudi Arabia and the UAE in the region’s aviation development. As tourism strategies, business activity and transport infrastructure continue to evolve, airlines will need to adapt capacity and networks to serve changing travel patterns.
Airline and Airport Investments Support Expansion
Multi-billion-dollar investments in airlines, regional giga-projects and airport infrastructure are reshaping the Middle East’s aviation landscape.
New and expanding aviation hubs are expected to strengthen connectivity between regional destinations and major international markets. These developments can also support tourism, hospitality, logistics and other industries that depend on reliable air links.
For airlines, projected demand creates a need to balance fleet capacity, route development and operational efficiency. The mix of aircraft required will be important, with single-aisle aircraft supporting a broad range of regional and medium-haul routes while widebody aircraft serve longer-distance markets and higher-capacity operations.
Airbus’ forecast of 2,160 single-aisle aircraft and 1,670 widebody aircraft reflects the different roles these aircraft types are expected to play in meeting future passenger demand.
The scale of projected requirements also highlights the importance of long-term planning across aircraft procurement, airport capacity and supporting aviation services.
Fleet Modernisation to Accelerate Across the Region
Alongside fleet growth, the Middle East is expected to experience one of the fastest rates of aircraft modernisation globally.
According to Airbus, new-generation aircraft are projected to account for 97% of the region’s fleet by 2035, compared with 45% in 2025.
Newer aircraft can offer improvements in fuel efficiency and operating performance, helping airlines manage costs while reducing emissions intensity. Fleet renewal is therefore expected to be an important part of the region’s response to increasing traffic and evolving environmental priorities.
Modernisation also requires airlines to consider their long-term operational needs, including aircraft suitability, maintenance requirements and the economics of different routes.
As carriers expand their networks, decisions about aircraft replacement and new deliveries will help shape how efficiently they can serve the region’s growing passenger base.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel Gains Strategic Importance
Sustainability is another area receiving attention as the Middle East prepares for long-term aviation growth. Airbus expects the region to play an increasingly important role in the future of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
Supported by investment strategies and ambitious aviation programmes, regional airlines and other industry stakeholders are positioning themselves to participate in the development of future SAF production and supply.
SAF is intended to help reduce aviation’s lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions compared with conventional jet fuel, depending on its production pathway and supply chain. Scaling its use, however, will require investment, reliable supply and broader industry coordination.
The region’s investment capacity and developing aviation infrastructure could create opportunities to advance production and adoption. Progress will depend on the development of commercially viable supply chains and the availability of fuel that meets the industry’s technical and sustainability requirements.
Middle East Aviation Outlook Through 2045
Airbus’ Global Market Forecast points to a period of substantial change for Middle East aviation, combining rising passenger traffic with fleet expansion, airport investment and a shift towards newer aircraft.
The projected requirement for more than 3,800 passenger aircraft by 2045 reflects expectations of stronger connectivity, increasing travel activity and continued investment across the region.
For airlines, the challenge will be to match fleet and network strategies with evolving demand while improving efficiency. For airports and the wider aviation sector, growth will increase the importance of infrastructure planning, operational capacity and sustainable development.
As Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other regional markets continue to develop their aviation and tourism sectors, the Middle East is expected to remain an important part of the global aviation landscape over the coming two decades.
Related reading: Impact Travel Group Strengthens Middle East Focus with Regional Partnerships Appointment | Wego’s Annual Middle East Traveller Destination Leaderboards: How Travel Disruptions Reshaped the Region’s Travel Map in 2026
Ahmed Abdul Wasey
Managing Editor, Eat ‘N Stays
Ahmed Abdul Wasey is the Managing Editor in Eat ‘N Stays, overseeing all editorial coverage of travel, hospitality, and food across Saudi Arabia and the wider Gulf region. He sets the publication’s editorial direction and reviews coverage across hotels, restaurants, tourism, cruise, and industry news before it publishes.
Have a story tip, correction, or question about our coverage? Reach Ahmed directly at pr@eatnstays.com.
